AZ · P

Michael Soroka

Age 29 B/T R/R 6′5″, 250 lb Canada MLB debut 2018

40-man

Free agent est. 3 yr × $14.5M ($6M–$28M) if his mutual option is declined · +1.1 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its #4 starter
1 caution
- Holds a $10.0M mutual option for 2027; one side almost always declines.
Injured list 2026: Right arm inflammation (Aug 23–Sep 9)

Keystone Stuff 97 37th pct

2026 fWAR 2.7

Projected 2027 WAR 2.0 Keystone Marcel+ at 137 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,838 pitches

Keystone Stuff 97

Keystone Location 106

Keystone Pitching 102

Run value (xRV) +0.04

Strikeout % 24.1%

Walk % 6.1%

Whiff % 23.0%

Chase % 34.2%

Fastball velo 93.5

Extension 6.1 ft

116.0 IP3.41 ERA3.19 FIP 26° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 26° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam32% use	32%	93.6	13.9	+8.1	100	105	17%	−0.52
Slurve32% use	32%	80.6	−8.2	−12.0	100	104	36%	+1.05
Changeup12% use	12%	85.9	3.3	+16.6	89	98	20%	−1.63
Cutter12% use	12%	89.0	7.5	−1.4	97	100	21%	−0.62
Sinker10% use	10%	93.3	5.5	+16.4	95	107	14%	+1.33

Weak pitch to watch

Changeup grades 89 with below-average expected results; his sweeper grades 112. Neither side has 60+ of each pitch. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Soroka: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
71	Brandon Pfaadt AZ · ’98	96	2.2	2.0	Signed $5.4M
58	Aaron Nola PHI · ’93	101	1.3	1.0	Signed $24.6M
56	Davis Martin CWS · ’97	88	2.6	1.8	Pre-arb
56	Randy Vásquez SD · ’98	95	1.4	1.2	Pre-arb
55	Jake Irvin WSH · ’97	98	0.5	0.4	Arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 36%

50% zone

Slurve 30%

39% zone

Changeup 20%

34% zone

Cutter 11%

32% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.0 WAR Mutual option $10.0M

2028 1.9 WAR Free agent

2029 1.7 WAR Free agent

2030 1.5 WAR Free agent

His 2027 is a $10.0M mutual option, decided ≈ Nov 1–5 (either side can decline it). The Free-Agent Board expects it declined, so it prices him as a free agent. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026AAA	AAA	Reno Aces	28	1	4 IP	4 IP · 2.25 ERA · 5.9% K · 11.8% BB
2025AA	AA	Harrisburg Senators	27	2	7 IP	7 IP · 5.14 ERA · 24.1% K · 6.9% BB
2025AAA	AAA	Iowa Cubs	27	2	7.1 IP	7.1 IP · 2.45 ERA · 46.7% K · 10.0% BB