Matt Olson
- Atlanta’s roster as it stands starts at 1B · 608 PA · 2.6 WAR in the role
- Trade read Unlikely to be traded: A franchise player: with ATL every season since at least 2022 (MLB debut 2016) and still a 2.5-WAR projection.
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 690 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 280 | .355 | .336 | 25% | 7% | 30% | +0.25 | +1.58 |
| RHP | 410 | .357 | .362 | 24% | 10% | 27% | +0.37 | +1.54 |
- Attack angle
- 10.2° (49% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −2.7°
- Swing length
- 7.6 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 46%
- Pull-air %
- 19.1%
- Hard-hit %
- 52.0%
- Slash · wRC+
- .251/.321/.502 · 122
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-middle (+2.5 vs. league per 100; 1.4 standard errors on 186 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).
Weakest up over the middle (−0.6), but only 0.3 standard errors from average on 139 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average LHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,655 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Olson: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | Pete Alonso BAL · ’94 | .403 | 5.0 | 2.5 | Signed $33.5M |
| 67 | Corbin Carroll AZ · ’00 | .342 | 4.2 | 4.4 | Signed $12.6M |
| 63 | Shea Langeliers ATH · ’97 | .352 | 2.3 | 2.4 | Arb |
| 61 | Shohei Ohtani LAD · ’94 | .399 | 6.6 | 7.3 | Signed $70.0M |
| 60 | Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL · ’97 | .366 | 1.8 | 2.2 | Club option $17.0M |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1B | +12 | +9 | +3.8 | +12.8 | 5,988 |
| 2025 | 1B | +9 | +7 | +4.6 | +11.6 | 6,099 |
| 2024 | 1B | +4 | +3 | +2.7 | +5.7 | 5,993 |
| 2023 | 1B | −5 | −4 | +4.8 | +0.8 | 6,078 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1B | 327 | +17.1 |
| 2025 | 1B | 343 | +12.8 |
| 2024 | 1B | 334 | +4.8 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant