Players / Player profile
KC · P

Seth Lugo

Age 36 B/T R/R 6′4″, 225 lb USA MLB debut 2016
40-man
  • Kansas City’s roster as it stands #5 starter · 111 IP · 0.8 WAR in the role
  • Injured list 2026: Concussion (Jun 12–Jun 19)
  • Trade read Available at a price: KC 39% playoff odds; control through 2028.
Keystone Stuff 90 11th pct
2026 fWAR 1.8
Projected 2027 WAR 0.8 at 112 IP · 0.8 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,858 pitches

Keystone Stuff 90 Keystone Stuff: 90, 11th percentile
Keystone Location 105 Keystone Location: 105, 74th percentile
Keystone Pitching 95 Keystone Pitching: 95, 34th percentile
Run value (xRV) −0.61 Run value (xRV): −0.61, 16th percentile
Strikeout % 17.8% Strikeout %: 17.8%, 18th percentile
Walk % 7.2% Walk %: 7.2%, 74th percentile
Whiff % 18.6% Whiff %: 18.6%, 6th percentile
Chase % 25.3% Chase %: 25.3%, 6th percentile
Fastball velo 91.5 Fastball velo: 91.5, 9th percentile
Extension 5.8 ft Extension: 5.8 ft, 7th percentile
172.1 IP5.17 ERA4.38 FIP 28° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

−20−20−10−100010102020← Glove sideArm side →Rise (IVB, in) →SI4SFCCUSTSLCHCS
RHP · arm angle 28° · how to read
PitchUseVeloIVBHBStuffLocWhiffxRV/100
Sinker20% use20%91.47.8+16.48610712%−1.49
Four-seam16% use16%91.715.3+8.99010215%−0.90
Cutter16% use16%89.811.9+0.49310524%−0.31
Curveball15% use15%77.3−13.0−16.19810122%+0.24
Sweeper11% use11%79.2−0.3−17.31079716%−1.10
Slider9% use9%84.31.0−5.09510723%−0.30
Changeup9% use9%85.13.0+15.7789916%−0.92
Slow curve2% use2%69.2−2.4−15.31109333%+2.99
Weak pitch to watch

Changeup grades 78 with below-average expected results; his slow curve grades 110. Neither side has 60+ of each pitch. No mix change until it clears.

Weak pitch to watch

Four-seam grades 90 with below-average expected results; his slow curve grades 110. Neither side has 60+ of each pitch. No mix change until it clears.

Weak pitch to watch

Sinker grades 86 with below-average expected results; his slow curve grades 110. Neither side has 60+ of each pitch. No mix change until it clears.

Weak pitch to watch

Slider grades 95 with below-average expected results; his slow curve grades 110. Neither side has 60+ of each pitch. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Lugo: same hand, shape, slot and mix

SimilarityPlayerStuff’26 WAR’27 proj2027
53Chris Bassitt BAL · ’89931.00.6Free agent
53JR Ritchie ATL · ’0395−0.30.2—
46Michael Soroka AZ · ’97972.72.0Free agent
45Landen Roupp SF · ’98972.52.0Pre-arb
42Michael McGreevy STL · ’00791.91.8Pre-arb

Chris Bassitt (similarity 53, 0.6 WAR projected for 2027) is a free agent this winter: a similar arsenal available without trading talent, at a free agent’s price. Opportunity Finder →

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Curveball 19%
38% zone
Sinker 18%
56% zone
Cutter 17%
57% zone
Four-seam 17%
49% zone
Changeup 13%
35% zone
Sweeper 9%
54% zone
Slider 5%
36% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.8 WAR Guaranteed $21.5M
2028 0.4 WAR Vesting option $20.0M
2029 0.1 WAR Free agent
2030 −0.2 WAR Free agent

Contract Studio →

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 0% 0/1 won · 0.0 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.