Nolan Arenado
- Arizona’s roster as it stands starts at 3B · 394 PA · 1.1 WAR in the role
- Trade read Available at a price: AZ 51% playoff odds; control through 2027.
Hitting · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 596 PA
Platoon splits · swing path
By pitcher handedness
| vs | PA | wOBA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Chase | Decisions | Contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LHP | 155 | .386 | .317 | 19% | 10% | 31% | −0.10 | +0.22 |
| RHP | 441 | .343 | .294 | 20% | 8% | 32% | −0.50 | −0.59 |
- Attack angle
- 12.9° (60% in 5–20°)
- Attack direction
- −12.9°
- Swing length
- 8.4 ft
- Fast-swing rate
- 14%
- Pull-air %
- 26.0%
- Hard-hit %
- 31.3%
- Slash · wRC+
- .255/.331/.475 · 120
Zone map · 2026
Where he does damage, and where to pitch him
Does the most damage middle-middle (+5.5 vs. league per 100; 3.0 standard errors above average on 162 pitches).
Weakest down and away (−1.1), but only 0.6 standard errors from average on 131 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.
Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 2,161 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).
Most similar hitters
Swings like Arenado: bat path, contact quality and approach
| Similarity | Player | xwOBA | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | Willy Adames SF · ’95 | .296 | 0.4 | 1.8 | Signed $31.1M |
| 46 | Cedric Mullins TB · ’94 | .273 | 1.1 | 0.9 | Free agent |
| 46 | Brandon Valenzuela TOR · ’00 | .314 | 2.1 | 2.0 | Pre-arb |
| 44 | Luis Campusano SD · ’98 | .327 | 1.8 | 0.9 | Arb |
| 43 | Francisco Lindor NYM · ’93 | .331 | 2.2 | 3.2 | Signed $34.1M |
Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.
Fielding
2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.
| Season | Pos | OAA | Range | Arm, DP | Runs | Batters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3B | +2 | +2 | +0.4 | +2.4 | 5,193 |
| 2025 | 3B | +3 | +2 | +0.2 | +2.2 | 3,744 |
| 2024 | 3B | +10 | +7 | −0.2 | +6.8 | 5,308 |
| 2023 | 3B | +6 | +4 | +1.3 | +5.3 | 4,782 |
Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.
At 3B in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 1B line (−4 outs): a coaching target.
Tools (percentile; arm among 3Bs)| Season | Zone | Balls | Outs vs. exp. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3B | 355 | +9.9 |
| 2025 | 3B | 315 | +7.6 |
| 2024 | 3B | 419 | +19.0 |
The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
Minor leagues
MLB Stats API · public box-score data
| SeasonLevel | Level | Team | Age | G | PA / IP | PA / IP ·Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025AA | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 34 | 4 | 14 PA | 14 PA · .077/.143/.077 · 0 HR · 21.4% K · 0.0% BB |
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant