Sonny Gray
- Free agent est. 2 yr × $16.7M ($12M–$26M) if his mutual option is declined · +1.0 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its #4 starter
2 cautions
- Holds a $30.0M mutual option for 2027; one side almost always declines.
- Big walk year: 3.4 WAR in 2026 against a 1.7-WAR projection. With the walk year at his projection the model would price him at $13.8M a year, not $16.7M. Last winter's 27 deals after such seasons came in about 8% under the estimate on average (± 13%): no clear premium or discount beyond what the model already pays.
- Injured list 2026: Right hamstring strain (Apr 21–May 6)
Pitching · 2026 percentiles
vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,474 pitches
Arsenal & Pitch Lab
Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch
| Pitch | Use | Velo | IVB | HB | Stuff | Loc | Whiff | xRV/100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker22% use | 22% | 92.0 | 7.2 | +11.8 | 87 | 99 | 15% | +0.89 |
| Sweeper20% use | 20% | 84.8 | −4.5 | −13.7 | 99 | 97 | 38% | +1.77 |
| Cutter19% use | 19% | 88.3 | 3.7 | −4.1 | 103 | 96 | 15% | −0.52 |
| Four-seam17% use | 17% | 91.5 | 11.3 | −0.7 | 97 | 108 | 13% | −0.18 |
| Curveball16% use | 16% | 79.6 | −14.5 | −12.8 | 101 | 103 | 31% | −0.35 |
| Changeup6% use | 6% | 86.2 | 3.7 | +14.0 | 88 | 100 | 22% | −1.55 |
No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.
Most similar pitchers
Pitches like Gray: same hand, shape, slot and mix
| Similarity | Player | Stuff | ’26 WAR | ’27 proj | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | Kyle Bradish BAL · ’96 | 100 | 1.5 | 1.7 | Signed $10.0M |
| 48 | Mitch Keller PIT · ’96 | 93 | 1.0 | 1.3 | Signed $18.4M |
| 47 | Hayden Wesneski HOU · ’97 | 90 | 1.2 | 1.1 | Arb |
| 46 | Luinder Avila KC · ’01 | 100 | 0.4 | 0.5 | — |
| 45 | Trevor McDonald SF · ’01 | 93 | 0.7 | 1.1 | — |
Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.
Pitch locations · 2026
Where each pitch finishes, by batter side
Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.
Contract & projection
Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR
His 2027 is a $30.0M mutual option, decided ≈ Nov 1–5 (either side can decline it). The Free-Agent Board expects it declined, so it prices him as a free agent. Contract Studio →
ABS challenges · 2026
Baseball Savant