Run prevention / Fielding Lab

Who should play where, and what is each glove really worth?

Every Pittsburgh fielder rated at every position he can play for 2027, the way the Winter Plan sees him: fielding runs at each spot (range, arm and double plays), regressed toward the defensive spectrum, with a cost for unfamiliar moves. Then the why: range by direction, arm, speed and, for outfielders, the first-step jump. Catchers have their own page: Catching. Tested forward on 2025 and 2026, the ratings track what players did (r = 0.46, slope 0.99), but one season lands within about ±8 runs of a rating only two times in three: a gap under 5.0 runs between two players is a toss-up. His previous season at the spot alone, regressed the same way, does nearly as well (error 8.3 runs against the rating’s 8.2; r = 0.45). Counting arm and double plays, not range alone, cuts the error (weighted mean squared error 74.8 → 71.3 in 2026, 66.0 → 62.8 in 2025). There is no aging term yet: the next season, fielders 25 and under ran +1.9 runs above their rating (±0.7) and those 32 and over −0.7 (±0.9).

For general manager, infield & outfield coordinators, pro scouting Model card Savant OAA & Fielding Run Value 2023–26 · Keystone expected outs · 2027 ratings

Who plays second and third

The Lowe chain from the Winter Plan: first, second and third base by alignment, each starter’s 2027 rating there over a full season

Alignment	1B	2B	3B	1B–3B runs	Wins	Payroll	Gonzales
2026’s regulars, projected	Spencer Horwitz −0.1	Brandon Lowe +2.1	Nick Gonzales −7.7	−5.7	—	—	3B
Lowe leaves; third base in-house	Ryan O'Hearn +2.0	Nick Gonzales −0.4	Jared Triolo +3.6	+5.2	79.1	$126.0M	2B
The plan: Lowe leaves; Isaac Paredes at third, Gonzales to second	Ryan O'Hearn +2.0	Nick Gonzales −0.4	Isaac Paredes −1.4	+0.3	81.7	$138.6M	2B
Lowe accepts the qualifying offer; Isaac Paredes too	Ryan O'Hearn +2.0	Brandon Lowe +2.1	Isaac Paredes −1.4	+2.7	83.5	$160.9M	bench
Lowe accepts; no acquisition	Ryan O'Hearn +2.0	Nick Gonzales −0.4	Brandon Lowe −2.9 mostly prior	−1.3	80.8	$148.4M	2B
Lowe re-signed at his market price (3 years × $30.8M); Isaac Paredes too	Ryan O'Hearn +2.0	Brandon Lowe +2.1	Isaac Paredes −1.4	+2.7	83.5	$168.5M	bench
Lowe at first base, Ryan O'Hearn to DH, Spencer Horwitz to the bench, Gonzales at second	Brandon Lowe +4.6	Nick Gonzales −0.4	Isaac Paredes −1.4	+2.8	82.9	$160.9M	2B
Keep Lowe, trade Gonzales	Ryan O'Hearn +2.0	Brandon Lowe +2.1	Isaac Paredes −1.4	+2.7	82.7	$158.6M	traded

Gonzales plays second in every alignment here except the 3 that keep Lowe at second (Gonzales to the bench or traded): getting him off third, not Lowe leaving, is what frees second. Ratings include the depth chart’s 3-run move cost where it charges one (an established regular, 2,000+ batters fielded in 2024–26, at a spot with under 1,000 batters there in 2025–26), so a cell can sit below the matrix’s number. Lowe’s glove at second is worth +2.5 runs over Gonzales a full season, a toss-up; most of the gap in wins is his bat. The plan also priced swapping starters’ spots (each against the plan’s 81.7 wins): Ryan O'Hearn to DH, Spencer Horwitz to 1B −0.17 wins (a toss-up); Ryan O'Hearn to RF, Esmerlyn Valdez to 1B −0.55 wins; Nick Gonzales to SS, Konnor Griffin to 2B −0.80 wins. Wins and payroll are the plan’s (current rules); see the QO brief, the third-base brief and Team Defense.

Who fits where in 2027

Projected fielding runs over a full season, relative to an average fielder at that spot. Outlined = the Winter Plan’s assignment; bold = his main position; faded = under 1,000 batters there in 2025–26; hatched = little or no MLB time there (under 300 batters in 2024–26: mostly the spectrum prior).

Player	2027 role	1B	2B	3B	SS	LF	CF	RF
1B starter	1B starter	+2.0	·	·	·	−5.1	·	−3.3
2B starter	2B starter	+5.1	−0.4	−7.7	−4.9	·	·	·
3B starter · proposed trade	3B starter · proposed trade	+5.0	−3.3	−1.4	·	·	·	·
SS starter	SS starter	·	−2.7	−2.7	−3.2	·	·	·
LF starter	LF starter	−3.4	·	·	·	−3.9	·	−7.9
CF starter	CF starter	·	·	·	−3.3	+6.2	+3.2	+6.2
RF starter	RF starter	−1.1	·	·	·	−3.9	·	−1.6
DH starter	DH starter	−0.1	−14.6	·	·	·	·	·
Bench	Bench	+9.0	·	·	·	+2.4	+3.5	+4.7
Bench	Bench	+7.3	+1.3	+3.6	−0.7	·	·	·
Bench	Bench	·	·	·	·	·	·	−1.6
Call-up	Call-up	·	+0.5	+0.5	0.0	·	·	·
Call-up	Call-up	·	−2.8	−0.6	·	·	·	·
Call-up · Rule 5 add	Call-up · Rule 5 add	·	0.0	−2.0	·	·	·	·
Minors	Minors	·	·	·	·	·	+2.6	+5.7
Minors	Minors	−0.6	−12.8	−15.1	·	−1.0	·	−3.1
Free agent (leaving)	Free agent (leaving)	+7.6	+2.1	+0.1	·	·	·	·
Traded	Traded	·	·	·	·	−3.6	−14.4	−1.4
Traded	Traded	+5.0	·	·	−5.0	·	·	·

Click a name for the full profile. Ratings feed the depth chart: the plan puts each player where the team gains the most, bat and glove together.

Bench coverage, 2027 playing time. SS: Konnor Griffin starts; Jared Triolo 309 PA (−0.7, 4,195 batters there). CF: Oneil Cruz starts; Jake Mangum 220 PA (+3.5, 3,310 batters there). C: Rafael Flores Jr. 266 PA and Endy Rodríguez 268 PA (−7.6, 1,461 batters there) split it; Derek Berg 101 PA (0.0, no MLB time there), Christian Bethancourt 36 PA (−2.2, 1,674 batters there), replacement 7 PA.

Nick Gonzales

Main position 2B · 2B starter

Player

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

2B −0.4 +2.1

SS −4.9 −0.4

3B −7.7 −5.2

1B +5.1prior −10.4

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	SS	+1	+1	−0.1	+0.9	142
2026	2B	−1	−1	−0.3	−1.3	998
2026	3B	−11	−8	−1.3	−9.3	3,838
2025	SS	+2	+1	−0.3	+0.7	448
2025	2B	+3	+2	−1.7	+0.3	3,085
2024	3B	0	0	0.0	0.0	41
2024	SS	0	0	0.0	0.0	259
2024	2B	+2	+1	−0.2	+0.8	3,185
2023	SS	0	0	−0.1	−0.1	254
2023	2B	0	0	−0.3	−0.3	1,001

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 2B)

2024 · 2B2025 · 2B In (charging) −10Back −1+3Toward 3B line +2+2Toward 1B line +2−2vs. RHH +1+3vs. LHH 0+1

At 2B in 2025, the biggest loss came toward 1B line (−2 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among 2Bs)

Arm at 2B 80.0 mph · 72nd

Sprint speed 28.8 ft/s · 87th

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.	r
2026	3B	242	−21.4	0.35
2026	2B	97	−2.2	0.46
2025	2B	278	−5.6	0.46
2024	2B	309	−10.3	0.46

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. The r column is how closely the two agreed across MLB at that position in 2026: weak on the infield, especially at shortstop. See the model card.

Best gloves available

Outside fielders ranked on their 2027 rating at the position (2,000+ batters there over 2024–26), against the plan’s 2027 starter; availability, contract and projected WAR for the market view

Team	2027 at 3B	vs. ours	All positions	2026 total	Availability	Contract	2027 WAR
MIL	+12.2^†	+13.6	+9.5	+13.0	Unlikely	Arbitration · thru 2029, $23.3M total (arb. est.)	2.2
TEX	+9.3^†	+10.7	+7.4	+12.9	Likely	Arbitration · thru 2028, $16.9M total (arb. est.)	2.2
KC	+7.2	+8.6	+6.0	+4.4	Unlikely	Signed $7.2M · thru 2031, $71.1M total	2.3
KC	+6.4	+7.8	−0.3	−1.4	Possible	Pre-arb · thru 2030, $9.2M total (arb. est.)	0.7
CLE	+5.7^†	+7.1	+5.6	+5.3	Possible	Pre-arb · thru 2030, $8.6M total (arb. est.)	0.7
SF	+5.6	+7.0	+5.3	+5.0	Possible	Signed $25.2M · thru 2030, $100.7M total	1.8
CHC	+5.0	+6.4	+4.8	+6.7	Unlikely	Signed $35.0M · thru 2030, $140.0M total	3.5
NYY	+4.6^†	+6.0	+4.4	+7.7	Free agent	Free agent	3.2
TOR	+4.5^†	+5.9	+3.2	−3.0	Possible	Arbitration · thru 2028, $11.9M total (arb. est.)	1.3

“2027 at 3B” is the rating the depth chart would use there († mostly his rating at another position, carried over by the spectrum prior: less his own record than the number suggests; hover for the share); “All positions” is his 2024–26 fielding runs per full season wherever he played, and “2026 total” is that one season. “Unlikely” rows are clubs that aren’t expected to move him (hover for why). Try one in the Roster Builder to see what he adds to this roster, not just his glove.