Canon Reeder

Plan for 2027

1. 1
   Impact high ask Hit the ball harder

   Average exit velocity ranks in the 2nd percentile of the Florida State League hitters (150+ PA). The target beats regression to the mean: it is his expected next season with no plan (a value this far from the Bradenton (FSL) median tends to come back part of the way) plus the step a quarter of similar players beat.

   Exit velocity: 78.6 mph target 81.4 mph no plan ≈ 80.1 mph No one-season check: a lean. Telling this target from noise takes about 183 balls in play; he had 90 in 2026. If he moves up to High-A Greensboro or Double-A Altoona, there’s no public pitch tracking: check his isolated power (ISO) in box scores as a rough stand-in instead. There’s no level-adjusted target, because box scores don’t carry this goal’s measure; the club’s own tracking does. Bradenton (FSL) tracking
2. 2
   Contact high ask Make more contact on strikes

   Zone contact ranks in the 14th percentile of the Florida State League hitters (150+ PA). The target beats regression to the mean: it is his expected next season with no plan (a value this far from the Bradenton (FSL) median tends to come back part of the way) plus the step a quarter of similar players beat.

   Zone contact: 75% target 80% no plan ≈ 77% No one-season check: a lean. Telling this target from noise takes about 329 swings at strikes; he had 219 in 2026. If he moves up to High-A Greensboro or Double-A Altoona, there’s no public pitch tracking: check his strikeout rate (K%) in box scores instead. There’s no level-adjusted target, because box scores don’t carry this goal’s measure; the club’s own tracking does. Bradenton (FSL) tracking

Each goal is checked when his sample can tell the target from noise: the 2027 All-Star break if it can by then, else season’s end or the sample it needs; if no single season can, it’s a lean. Coach card