HOU · P

AJ Blubaugh

Age 26 B/T R/R 6′2″, 190 lb USA MLB debut 2025

40-man FV 45 · #3 in org

Houston’s roster as it stands late-inning relief · 61 IP · 0.2 WAR in the role
Trade read Available at a price: HOU 43% playoff odds; control through 2031.

Keystone Stuff 104 65th pct

2026 fWAR 0.2

Projected 2027 WAR 0.3 at 81 IP · 0.2 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,640 pitches

Keystone Stuff 104

Keystone Location 94

Keystone Pitching 96

Run value (xRV) −0.10

Strikeout % 23.4%

Walk % 10.5%

Whiff % 28.1%

Chase % 28.8%

Fastball velo 95.8

Extension 6.5 ft

96.0 IP3.66 ERA4.31 FIP 44° arm1 SV

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

RHP · arm angle 44° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam51% use	51%	95.8	17.1	+10.7	98	98	23%	−0.07
Sweeper23% use	23%	84.7	3.6	−12.0	113	106	32%	+0.70
Changeup21% use	21%	85.9	3.5	+16.1	103	89	33%	−0.62
Cutter4% use	4%	89.1	8.6	−2.9	99	50	52%	−0.62

Pitch idea (fragile)

Built from his own fastball (95.8 mph) plus the typical shape 39 pitchers with his slot (44°) throw: a sinker around 95.8 mph, 13.6″ rise, +16.5″ arm-side. On the same model it grades +21 against his changeup, his weakest pitch that breaks the same way (+13 to +30 across the production and three cross-fit models), about 123 on his changeup’s scale; the comps’ own sinkers grade 95 at the median, so that sits above 100% of them. That would out-grade 100% of the comps’ real pitches, more likely a result of how the pitch was built than of the pitch, so it isn’t queued.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Blubaugh: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
52	Jack Perkins ATH · ’99	103	0.8	0.7	Pre-arb
52	Ron Marinaccio MIN · ’95	104	−0.5	−0.1	—
51	Luis Medina ATH · ’99	103	0.9	0.6	Arb
47	Cole Sulser TB · ’90	100	0.6	0.2	Arb
47	Orion Kerkering PHI · ’01	107	0.3	0.7	Arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 52%

47% zone

Changeup 28%

27% zone

Sweeper 18%

50% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.3 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 0.4 WAR Pre-arb $803K*

2029 0.4 WAR Arbitration $1.7M*

2030 0.4 WAR Arbitration $2.1M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	24	22	99 IP	99 IP · 5.27 ERA · 22.3% K · 12.8% BB

FanGraphs: FV 45 · ETA 2026. Public pitch tracking exists only at Triple-A and some Florida State League parks.