BOS · 3B

Caleb Durbin

Age 26 B/T R/R 5′6″, 183 lb USA MLB debut 2025

40-man

Boston’s roster as it stands starts at 3B · 534 PA · 2.6 WAR in the role
Trade read Unlikely to be traded: Young, controllable regular (age 27, control through 2031): the kind of player clubs build around.

xwOBA .295 wOBA .330

2026 fWAR 3.1

Projected 2027 WAR 2.6 at 544 PA · 2.6 in his 2027 role

Hitting · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB hitters with 300+ PA · 587 PA

xwOBA .295

Swing decisions −0.18

Contact value −1.24

Bat speed 69.1

Squared-up / swing 23%

Blasts / swing 4%

EV90 99.9

Barrel % 2.8%

Chase % 28.1%

Zone contact 89.2%

Strikeout % 13.5%

Walk % 8.5%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vs	PA	wOBA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Chase	Decisions	Contact
LHP	165	.330	.310	12%	8%	27%	−0.51	−0.83
RHP	422	.330	.290	14%	9%	29%	−0.04	−1.41

Attack angle: 9.9° (62% in 5–20°)
Attack direction: −1.3°
Swing length: 7.0 ft
Fast-swing rate: 6%
Pull-air %: 16.4%
Hard-hit %: 25.2%
Slash · wRC+: .248/.332/.378 · 100

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

Does the most damage up and away (+3.0 vs. league per 100; 1.5 standard errors on 110 pitches, inside the noise for the best of nine cells).

Weakest middle-in (−7.6; 3.5 standard errors below average on 87 pitches). Pitchers should attack here.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 1,967 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Durbin: bat path, contact quality and approach

Similarity	Player	xwOBA	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
71	Zach McKinstry DET · ’95	.288	0.7	1.2	Arb
67	Cooper Pratt MIL · ’04	.320	1.7	1.9	Signed $3.9M
64	Luke Keaschall MIN · ’02	.323	3.0	2.9	Pre-arb
64	Matt Shaw CHC · ’01	.306	0.7	1.2	Pre-arb
64	Andruw Monasterio BOS · ’97	.289	−0.8	−0.2	Arb

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth

3B +2.6 +5.1

2B +0.5prior 0.0

1B +8.1prior −7.4

Outs Above Average by position

Season	Pos	OAA	Range	Arm, DP	Runs	Batters
2026	3B	+6	+5	+1.4	+6.4	5,451
2025	SS	0	0	0.0	0.0	16
2025	2B	−1	0	0.0	0.0	190
2025	3B	+1	0	−0.6	−0.6	4,437

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at 3B)

2025 · 3B2026 · 3B In (charging) −1+2Back +1+1Toward 3B line +2−2Toward 1B line −2+6vs. RHH +1+5vs. LHH −1+2

At 3B in 2026, the biggest loss came toward 3B line (−2 outs): a coaching target.

Tools (percentile; arm among 3Bs)

Arm at 3B 81.1 mph · 26th

Sprint speed 27.9 ft/s · 63rd

Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)

Season	Zone	Balls	Outs vs. exp.
2026	3B	429	+2.4
2025	3B	323	+8.3

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.6 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 2.5 WAR Arbitration $4.5M*

2029 2.3 WAR Arbitration $8.4M*

2030 1.9 WAR Arbitration $14.0M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Nashville Sounds	25	13	58 PA	58 PA · .278/.316/.481 · 2 HR · 8.6% K · 5.2% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 57% 17/30 won · +0.7 runs