CLE · P

Joey Cantillo

Age 26 B/T L/L 6′4″, 225 lb USA MLB debut 2024

40-man Dead-weight pitch

Cleveland’s roster as it stands #3 starter · 136 IP · 1.7 WAR in the role
Trade read Available at a price: CLE sits on the contender line (49% playoff odds, within a projected win of 50%), so it could buy or sell; control through 2031.

Keystone Stuff 97 37th pct

2026 fWAR 2.0

Projected 2027 WAR 2.0 at 159 IP · 1.7 in his 2027 role

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,747 pitches

Keystone Stuff 97

Keystone Location 92

Keystone Pitching 89

Run value (xRV) +0.09

Strikeout % 24.9%

Walk % 11.8%

Whiff % 29.1%

Chase % 27.5%

Fastball velo 92.2

Extension 7.2 ft

159.0 IP3.62 ERA3.98 FIP 50° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 50° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam33% use	33%	92.2	16.4	+6.7	84	96	15%	−1.14
Curveball31% use	31%	80.0	−17.0	−9.7	105	97	36%	+1.27
Changeup24% use	24%	81.1	12.7	+9.4	109	92	39%	+0.70
Cutter8% use	8%	87.1	6.7	−2.5	89	86	25%	−0.89
Slider4% use	4%	82.8	−6.0	−3.9	100	97	27%	−0.68

Dead weight

Four-seam grades 84 and gets below-average expected results on 33% usage. Against righties, moving about 6 of every 100 pitches to the changeup (109 Stuff), about 18% of his four-seams to them, is worth an estimated 1.0 runs per season, after a 50% haircut for diminishing returns. vs. righties: the changeup is worth +1.7 runs per 100 pitches more, 2.7 standard errors (580 and 669 pitches; his own results against that side combined with Stuff and the league’s platoon split). His fastballs stay at 35%+.

Weak pitch to watch

Cutter grades 89 with below-average expected results; his changeup grades 109. The best case is against righties: the changeup is worth +1.3 runs per 100 pitches more, 1.7 standard errors (580 and 118 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Cantillo: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
46	Noah Cameron KC · ’99	99	2.8	2.4	Pre-arb
42	MacKenzie Gore TEX · ’99	94	2.8	2.8	Arb
29	Reid Detmers LAA · ’99	104	4.9	2.6	Arb
22	Andrew Alvarez WSH · ’99	97	2.5	2.2	Pre-arb
22	Jake Bennett BOS · ’00	95	2.3	2.1	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Curveball 33%

37% zone

Four-seam 32%

47% zone

Changeup 28%

39% zone

Cutter 6%

52% zone

Slider 2%

57% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 2.0 WAR Pre-arb $780K*

2028 2.0 WAR Arbitration $3.6M*

2029 1.9 WAR Arbitration $6.6M*

2030 1.8 WAR Arbitration $10.9M*

* projected arbitration or minimum salary. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2025AAA	AAA	Columbus Clippers	25	6	21.1 IP	21.1 IP · 5.06 ERA · 30.3% K · 9.0% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 50% 1/2 won · +0.1 runs