LAD · P

Tarik Skubal

Age 29 B/T R/L 6′3″, 240 lb USA MLB debut 2020

40-man

Free agent est. 8 yr × $40.2M ($28M–$62M) · +3.3 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as its #1 starter
2 cautions
- Strong October (2.45 ERA in 11.0 IP): the price model only sees the regular season, so the market may pay more.
- Priced beyond last winter's market: his projection (4.8 WAR) is above any starter signed then (3.3). The model's extrapolation ($43.9M a year) is capped at 1.1× the richest starter deal (Framber Valdez, $36.5M), so the estimate is a floor more than a forecast.
Injured list 2026: Loose bodies in left elbow (May 4–Jun 13)

Keystone Stuff 114 89th pct

2026 fWAR 5.2

Projected 2027 WAR 4.8 Keystone Marcel+ at 169 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 2,356 pitches

Keystone Stuff 114

Keystone Location 114

Keystone Pitching 121

Run value (xRV) +1.04

Strikeout % 30.0%

Walk % 4.3%

Whiff % 31.7%

Chase % 36.6%

Fastball velo 96.8

Extension 6.4 ft

158.2 IP2.72 ERA2.51 FIP 48° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 48° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam38% use	38%	96.8	17.1	+3.2	107	109	26%	+0.88
Changeup26% use	26%	87.7	4.8	+13.7	110	107	47%	+1.31
Sinker17% use	17%	96.7	12.3	+13.2	111	113	19%	+0.73
Slider14% use	14%	89.7	4.0	−3.2	115	112	29%	+1.47
Curveball5% use	5%	80.4	−5.1	−8.7	101	94	39%	+0.79

No mix change or new pitch clears its bar. The arsenal is efficient for its shapes.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Skubal: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
59	Carlos Rodón NYY · ’92	109	1.8	1.5	Signed $27.8M
50	Gage Jump ATH · ’03	106	1.7	1.8	Pre-arb
49	Shane McClanahan TB · ’97	104	2.4	1.9	Arb
46	Patrick Sandoval BOS · ’96	106	1.3	1.3	Free agent
37	Yusei Kikuchi LAA · ’91	101	1.1	1.0	Signed $21.0M

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 42%

50% zone

Changeup 27%

28% zone

Slider 16%

52% zone

Sinker 11%

45% zone

Curveball 5%

33% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 4.8 WAR Free agent

2028 4.6 WAR Free agent

2029 4.3 WAR Free agent

2030 4.0 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A+	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	29	1	5 IP	5 IP · 0.00 ERA · 35.3% K · 0.0% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 0% 0/1 won · 0.0 runs