CHC · P

Matthew Boyd

Age 35 B/T L/L 6′3″, 223 lb USA MLB debut 2015

40-man

Free agent est. 2 yr × $9.9M ($4M–$19M) if his mutual option is declined · +0.7 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as rotation depth
1 caution
- Holds a $15.0M mutual option for 2027; one side almost always declines.
Injured list 2026: Left meniscus injury (May 6–Jun 25)

Keystone Stuff 97 39th pct

2026 fWAR 1.6

Projected 2027 WAR 1.3 Keystone Marcel+ at 110 IP

Pitching · 2026 percentiles

vs. MLB pitchers with 500+ pitches · 1,957 pitches

Keystone Stuff 97

Keystone Location 108

Keystone Pitching 100

Run value (xRV) −0.27

Strikeout % 18.5%

Walk % 7.5%

Whiff % 22.3%

Chase % 32.1%

Fastball velo 92.8

Extension 6.2 ft

126.2 IP3.91 ERA4.21 FIP 23° arm

Arsenal & Pitch Lab

Movement normalized to arm side · Keystone Stuff by pitch

LHP · arm angle 23° · how to read

Pitch	Use	Velo	IVB	HB	Stuff	Loc	Whiff	xRV/100
Four-seam44% use	44%	92.8	11.5	+13.9	94	105	15%	−1.06
Changeup28% use	28%	78.7	3.6	+15.9	105	116	27%	+0.17
Slider14% use	14%	83.1	1.5	−1.2	91	94	37%	+0.49
Curveball12% use	12%	73.1	−8.9	−11.4	104	90	25%	+0.41

Weak pitch to watch

Four-seam grades 94 with below-average expected results; his changeup grades 105. The best case is against righties: the changeup is worth +0.6 runs per 100 pitches more, 0.8 standard errors (494 and 694 pitches), short of the 2 needed. No mix change until it clears.

Most similar pitchers

Pitches like Boyd: same hand, shape, slot and mix

Similarity	Player	Stuff	’26 WAR	’27 proj	2027
45	Jeffrey Springs ATH · ’92	96	−0.4	0.3	Free agent
43	Patrick Corbin TOR · ’89	90	0.4	0.5	Free agent
41	Shane McClanahan TB · ’97	104	2.4	1.9	Arb
40	Nick Lodolo CIN · ’98	102	−0.1	1.2	Arb
38	Quinn Mathews STL · ’00	94	0.8	1.1	Pre-arb

Same-handed pitchers nearest on fastball velocity and shape, arm angle, extension, pitch mix, secondary shapes, Stuff, whiff rate and workload. 2026 regulars only.

Pitch locations · 2026

Where each pitch finishes, by batter side

Four-seam 47%

48% zone

Changeup 34%

40% zone

Curveball 12%

40% zone

Slider 7%

34% zone

Where each pitch finishes, catcher’s view. The bar marks the batter’s side; the box is an average strike zone. Pitches with 40+ thrown to this side.

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 1.3 WAR Mutual option $15.0M

2028 0.8 WAR Free agent

2029 0.5 WAR Free agent

2030 0.1 WAR Free agent

His 2027 is a $15.0M mutual option, decided ≈ Nov 1–5 (either side can decline it). The Free-Agent Board expects it declined, so it prices him as a free agent. Contract Studio →

Minor leagues

MLB Stats API · public box-score data

SeasonLevel	Level	Team	Age	G	PA / IP	PA / IP ·Line
2026A+	A+	South Bend Cubs	35	1	4 IP	4 IP · 0.00 ERA · 50.0% K · 0.0% BB
2026AAA	AAA	Iowa Cubs	35	3	12.2 IP	12.2 IP · 7.11 ERA · 23.6% K · 5.5% BB

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As pitcher 0% 0/1 won · 0.0 runs