Players / Player profile
CWS · DH

Randal Grichuk

Age 35 B/T R/R 6′0″, 210 lb USA MLB debut 2014
40-man
  • Free agent est. 1 yr × $5.2M ($2M–$10M) · +0.4 wins to Pittsburgh’s Winter Plan as a bench bat
    1 caution
    • Big walk year: 1.7 WAR in 2026 against a 0.5-WAR projection. With the walk year at his projection the model would price him at $3.9M a year, not $5.2M. Last winter's 27 deals after such seasons came in about 8% under the estimate on average (± 13%): no clear premium or discount beyond what the model already pays.
  • PNC Park Pittsburgh’s home park: −2.5 runs per 600 PA against an average park (−0.13 wins over 299 PA; his WAR leaves this out); home runs ×0.78 (×0.77 for right-handed hitters as a group). Park Fit →
xwOBA .335 wOBA .372
2026 fWAR 1.7
Projected 2027 WAR 0.5 Keystone Marcel+ at 299 PA

Hitting · 2026

278 PA: percentiles need 300+, so values only

xwOBA .335 xwOBA: .335
Swing decisions −0.73 Swing decisions: −0.73
Contact value +1.78 Contact value: +1.78
Bat speed 74.5 Bat speed: 74.5
Squared-up / swing 25% Squared-up / swing: 25%
Blasts / swing 12% Blasts / swing: 12%
EV90 107.7 EV90: 107.7
Barrel % 11.2% Barrel %: 11.2%
Chase % 36.4% Chase %: 36.4%
Zone contact 86.7% Zone contact: 86.7%
Strikeout % 21.9% Strikeout %: 21.9%
Walk % 3.2% Walk %: 3.2%

Platoon splits · swing path

By pitcher handedness

vsPAwOBAxwOBAK%BB%ChaseDecisionsContact
LHP176.431.38022%5%36%−0.57+3.34
RHP102.267.25523%0%37%−1.01−0.96
Attack angle
8.9° (62% in 5–20°)
Attack direction
−6.6°
Swing length
7.7 ft
Fast-swing rate
43%
Pull-air %
21.4%
Hard-hit %
50.0%
Slash · wRC+
.287/.314/.566 · 139

Zone map · 2026

Where he does damage, and where to pitch him

−0.7+0.1−0.3+0.7+0.6+0.5−1.1−1.9+0.6−0.7−2.0+2.3−3.9+0.8−2.5+0.4+0.7+8.8+8.3+0.3+0.5−1.8+3.1+0.3−1.8RHB

Does the most damage down over the middle (+8.8 vs. league per 100; 3.9 standard errors above average on 65 pitches).

Weakest middle-middle (−3.9), but only 1.7 standard errors from average on 69 pitches: no in-zone spot to attack yet.

Runs per 100 pitches vs. an average RHB: better · worse. Catcher’s view · 920 pitches · faded cells are within one standard error of average. A spot is called only when it is farther from average than the best or worst of nine average cells gets 95% of the time (set from the league’s own pitches: about 3 standard errors above, 2 below).

Most similar hitters

Swings like Grichuk: bat path, contact quality and approach

SimilarityPlayerxwOBA’26 WAR’27 proj2027
70Luis García Jr. NYY · ’00.3402.61.9Arb
58Casey Schmitt SF · ’99.3531.91.4Arb
54Ketel Marte AZ · ’93.3482.53.1Signed $12.0M
51Alec Burleson STL · ’98.3753.21.9Arb
48Michael Harris II ATL · ’01.3444.52.7Signed $9.0M

Nearest neighbours on bat speed, swing length, attack angle, squared-up and blast rates, EV90, barrels, pull-air, chase, zone contact, K% and BB%. 2026 regulars only.

Fielding

2027 rating at every position he can play · OAA by position · range by direction · tools. Same engine as the Fielding Lab and the Winter Plan.

2027 rating by position · best fit first, on the total with the position’s worth
LF −3.6 −11.1
RF −4.4 −11.9
1B −3.9prior −19.4
Outs Above Average by position
SeasonPosOAARangeArm, DPRunsBatters
2026RF−2−2−0.1−2.1212
2026LF+2+2−0.4+1.61,053
2025CF000.00.09
2025LF00−0.1−0.1412
2025RF−3−2−0.1−2.11,021
2024LF00−0.3−0.3386
2024RF−1−1−0.9−1.91,261
2023CF−2−2+0.1−1.9666
2023RF−1−1+0.1−0.9854
2023LF−3−3+0.2−2.82,566

Runs = range plus his arm and double-play runs spread over his positions by outs (Fielding Run Value, from 2023): what the rating counts.

Range by direction (OAA at LF)
2026 · LF In (charging) 0Back 0Toward 3B line −1Toward 1B line 0vs. RHH +2vs. LHH −1
Tools (percentile; arm among RFs)
Arm at RF 88.2 mph · 41st
Sprint speed 27.3 ft/s · 48th
Reaction +1.3 ft · 84th
Burst +0.5 ft · 63rd
Route −1.0 ft · 13th
Catch difficulty (latest season)
PlayMadeChancesRate
★★★★★11010%
★★★★00—
★★★11100%
★★91090%
★5683%
Zone rating (Keystone expected outs)
SeasonZoneBallsOuts vs. exp.
2026LF113+0.7
2025RF80−0.7
2024RF138−4.3
2024LF41+3.0

The zone rating counts every ball hit to his part of the field while he played there, his club’s positioning included; Savant OAA uses his actual starting spot and is the better individual grade. They agree best in the outfield. See the model card.

Compare in the Fielding Lab →

Contract & projection

Club control (RosterResource) · Keystone projected WAR

2027 0.5 WAR Free agent
2028 0.0 WAR Free agent
2029 −0.5 WAR Free agent
2030 −0.9 WAR Free agent

A pending free agent: no club controls his 2027. Contract Studio →

ABS challenges · 2026

Baseball Savant

As batter 86% 6/7 won · +0.4 runs
Keystone is an independent portfolio project. It is not affiliated with Major League Baseball or any club. Data: MLB Stats API, Baseball Savant, FanGraphs. Used under their terms for individual, non-commercial use.